India’s milk demand-supply gap could widen significantly in the coming years unless the dairy sector takes urgent steps to address climate-related risks affecting animal health and milk production. A working paper released by the CII Food and Agri Centre of Excellence and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) has highlighted the growing impact of rising temperatures, fodder shortages and productivity challenges on India’s dairy industry.
According to the paper, annual milk production growth in India has slowed sharply from around 6–7% to approximately 3.5–3.7%. At the same time, demand for milk and dairy products continues to increase, creating concerns about the sector’s ability to maintain adequate supplies.
Heat Stress Threatens Milk Production
Rising temperatures are emerging as one of the most significant risks for dairy farmers. The working paper estimates that a 1°C increase in temperature can result in a loss of around 1.5 to 2 litres of milk per animal per day.
Heat stress can affect both animal health and milk composition. For dairy companies, this can translate into higher procurement costs and reduced margins, particularly during periods of extreme heat. Changes in milk fat and protein levels can also affect the production of value-added products such as cheese, paneer and curd.
| Key Indicator | Reported Figure |
|---|---|
| Earlier annual milk production growth | 6–7% |
| Current annual production growth | 3.5–3.7% |
| Milk loss from 1°C temperature rise | 1.5–2 litres/animal/day |
| Indian cattle productivity | Around 7–8 litres/day/animal |
| Structured milk recording coverage | Less than 1% of milk animals |
Data and Fodder Security Identified as Priorities
The working paper has proposed several measures to strengthen climate resilience across the dairy industry. These include establishing a national dairy data platform and developing a national fodder security strategy.
Better data collection could allow farmers, processors and policymakers to identify productivity and climate-related risks more effectively. The paper also highlights the need for climate-resilient dairy skilling institutes, a national indigenous-dairy certification standard and sector-wide emissions reporting.
According to EDF chief advisor-India Hisham Mundol, less than 1% of India’s milk animals are currently covered by structured milk recording. Limited animal-level data makes it difficult to target interventions, assess risks and demonstrate the viability of dairy businesses to financial institutions.
Methane Emissions Add to Climate Challenge
The dairy sector also faces pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Icrier distinguished professor Ashok Gulati pointed to methane as a major concern because livestock produce methane during digestion.
Gulati said improving animal diets could help reduce emissions. He cited research from Australia suggesting that incorporating seaweed into livestock diets could potentially reduce methane emissions by 30–40%.
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and livestock emissions are largely associated with methane generated during feed digestion. Improving feed quality and balancing animal diets could therefore have implications for both productivity and environmental performance.
Improving Animal Productivity
Low productivity per animal remains another major challenge for Indian dairy farming. Gulati put average productivity among Indian cattle at approximately 7–8 litres of milk per animal per day.
The discussion has also renewed attention on indigenous cattle breeds and breeding strategies. According to Gulati, some Indian cattle genetics have demonstrated considerably higher productivity under Brazilian dairy systems. He argued that greater access to high-quality indigenous genetics could be part of a broader strategy to improve productivity.
Breed resilience is particularly important as temperatures rise. Indigenous breeds can have greater tolerance to heat and humidity than some crossbred animals, potentially reducing the impact of heat stress under increasingly challenging climatic conditions.
Building a Climate-Resilient Dairy Sector
The challenges facing India’s dairy sector extend beyond individual farms. Climate stress can affect farmers, milk procurement systems, processors and consumers across the dairy value chain.
A combination of better animal records, improved fodder availability, climate-resilient breeds, stronger skills, emissions measurement and quality standards could help the industry prepare for changing conditions.
With milk demand continuing to grow while production growth slows, strengthening climate resilience is becoming an increasingly important component of India’s dairy development strategy. The working paper argues that coordinated action across farmers, companies, researchers and policymakers will be necessary to maintain productivity and ensure a reliable milk supply.