Milk prices across the European Union stabilized and began strengthening in August 2026 as heatwaves, drought and deteriorating feed conditions affected milk yields. With EU raw milk production expected to decline further in the fourth quarter, rising feed costs and lower dairy inventories could support additional increases in farmgate milk prices.
According to preliminary European Commission data, the average raw milk price in the EU reached 42.22 euro cents per kg in August 2026, up 0.40% from July. However, the price remained 20.64% below August 2025 levels. In comparison, extra-grade milk in Ukraine was priced at 33.42 euro cents per kg during August.
Milk Prices Rise in Nine EU Countries
Raw milk prices increased in nine EU member states during August. Belgium recorded the sharpest monthly increase, with prices reaching 42.50 euro cents per kg, up 12.34%.
Prices also increased in Denmark to 44.41 euro cents per kg, the Netherlands to 42.50 euro cents, Austria to 45.50 euro cents, Bulgaria to 41.58 euro cents, Greece to 58.20 euro cents, Lithuania to 35.45 euro cents, Romania to 34.86 euro cents and Finland to 47.50 euro cents.
Meanwhile, purchasing prices remained unchanged in Germany, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Malta, Portugal and Sweden.
Prices declined in nine countries, including France, where raw milk prices fell 1.79% to 43.38 euro cents per kg. Hungary recorded a 1.28% decline to 34.80 euro cents, while Slovakia fell 1.58% to 36.11 euro cents.
Cyprus had the highest raw milk price at 66.55 euro cents per kg, followed by Malta at 63.66 euro cents. Romania and Hungary recorded the lowest prices at 34.86 and 34.80 euro cents per kg, respectively.
Annual Prices Remain Under Pressure
Despite the recent stabilization, EU milk prices remain substantially lower than a year earlier. Compared with August 2025, prices increased only in Greece and Cyprus, rising 4.32% and 4.31%, respectively.
Prices declined across 24 other EU countries. The largest annual reductions were recorded in Hungary at 30.55%, Lithuania at 27.76%, the Czech Republic at 27.39%, Slovakia at 27.31% and Germany at 26.02%.
Heatwaves Affect Milk Production
Weather conditions have become an important factor behind the recent shift in the European dairy market. According to AHDB data, heatwaves experienced in late June and July reduced raw milk production, particularly in France and Germany.
France recorded periods when milk production was 7.5% below the previous year, while Germany experienced a decline of around 3%.
Dry conditions have also affected the availability and quality of feed. IFCN reported that lower rainfall slowed grass and crop growth and negatively affected the production of protein feeds, particularly rapeseed and sunflower. Some farmers harvested crops and feed earlier to prevent further losses from drought.
These conditions could result in lower feed availability and reduced nutritional value, increasing pressure on dairy farmers.
EU Milk Production Could Fall Further
Rabobank forecasts that EU milk production could decline by 1.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026. IFCN estimates that EU raw milk futures could reach approximately US$49 per 100 kg by the end of 2026.
Rising feed prices could further increase farmers’ production costs. Farmers may either reduce feed use and accept lower milk production or purchase additional feed and increase concentrate use to maintain yields, potentially raising production costs further.
Lower dairy product inventories are also supporting prices. FAO reported that reduced milk yields and lower milk-fat availability in August contributed to higher prices for skimmed milk, cheese and butter.
European dairy cooperatives have already begun responding. Arla Foods increased its raw milk purchasing price by almost €1 per 100 kg in September, signaling growing expectations of firmer dairy markets.
Overall, declining milk production, higher feed costs, weather-related supply pressures and falling dairy inventories could provide further support to EU milk prices in the coming months.