Global supply momentum continues to exceed demand growth, with New Zealand’s strong output mirroring trends across other major dairy-exporting regions. Key producers reported solid year-on-year increases in milk production, including the United States at +3.7%, Argentina at +9.4%, Uruguay at +2.6%, the European Union at +4.3%, and China at +4.2%. Australia was the only major exporter to register a decline, falling -2.4%. This broad-based expansion has directly influenced pricing, contributing to weaker results across the Global Dairy Trade platform. GDT Events 391 and 392 recorded declines of -2.4% and -3.0%, marking the fifth consecutive fall. The most significant downward movements occurred in butter (-7.6%) and anhydrous milkfat (-5.0%), with mozzarella dropping -2.8% and cheddar decreasing -2.7%.
Export Conditions Reflect Softer Commodity Environment
New Zealand’s October trade data captured the impact of this weaker market environment. Total dairy export volumes slipped -1.2% year on year to 311,885 tonnes, although overall export value rose 8.6%, supported by stronger unit prices and product mix. On a year-to-date basis, export volumes remain up 2.7%, with value lifting 17.1%, indicating continued resilience despite price pressure.
Export performance varied across product categories. Whole milk powder fell -4%, skim milk powder declined -11%, while AMF inched up 1%. Butter exports increased 7%, and cheese shipments rose 6%, reflecting relatively stable demand for higher-value and consumer-facing dairy categories.
Mixed Global Demand Signals
Global demand continues to present a mixed picture. China’s dairy imports in October rose 1%, driven by 4% growth in WMP and an exceptional 31% increase in cheese imports, highlighting shifting consumption patterns. The United States recorded 2.3% year-to-date export growth, and Argentina posted a strong 19.2% rise in October exports. In contrast, both Australia and the European Union reported softer export performance, reflecting the impact of increased domestic supply and subdued buying activity in several markets.
Overall, while demand remains present in key regions, it has not kept pace with the scale of global supply growth. This imbalance continues to pressure commodity prices and shape export dynamics across major dairy-producing countries.