The global milk supply is expected to rise by 1.4% in 2025, according to a newly released Ornua Global Dairy Outlook, signalling a moderate but positive recovery in worldwide milk output following a period of supply contraction and market volatility.
As one of the world’s leading dairy exporters, Ornua’s forecast outlines a cautiously optimistic outlook as global milk production levels adjust after over a year of stagnation driven by high input costs, environmental pressures, and economic uncertainty.
🌍 Key Trends Shaping the Global Dairy Outlook
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Supply Recovery in the EU & US:
Milk production is stabilizing in Europe and the United States, driven by slightly improved farmgate prices and supportive weather conditions in key producing regions. -
Weather and Input Pressures Persist:
Despite positive growth, Ornua highlights that climate-related challenges and high feed and energy costs are still limiting full recovery in some regions. -
Demand Shifting Eastward:
Consumer demand continues to shift toward Asia, particularly in Southeast Asia and China, as urbanization, population growth, and nutritional awareness drive dairy consumption. -
Trade Normalization:
Global dairy trade is beginning to normalize, with fewer COVID-era disruptions. However, geopolitical tensions and shipping costs remain watchpoints for global players.
🧭 What This Means for India’s Dairy Sector
While India is largely self-sufficient in milk production, global trends do influence domestic dynamics—especially in value-added dairy exports, skimmed milk powder (SMP) pricing, and imported inputs like feed additives and machinery.
A 1.4% global increase may relieve some pressure on international dairy prices, offering India’s processors and cooperatives more stability for planning exports, especially in value-added products like cheese, butter, and ghee.
🌐 India’s Response: Focus on Efficiency and Exports
With initiatives like the National Dairy Plan Phase II and White Revolution 2.0, India is working to increase per-animal productivity, build cold chain infrastructure, and unlock global markets.
A globally expanding milk supply in 2025 could be an opportunity for India to enhance its export footprint, particularly in regions facing shortfalls or in search of cost-competitive dairy ingredients.