India’s protein consumption could more than triple by 2070, with dairy expected to remain the country’s leading source of animal protein. A new report by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), CIFTI-FICCI and Asia Research & Engagement (ARE) highlights significant opportunities for India’s dairy sector, while warning that future growth will depend on improving animal productivity, feed efficiency and climate resilience.
The report, “Charting India’s Protein Transition,” estimates that average annual per-capita protein consumption could rise from 9.5 kg in 2025 to around 30 kg by 2070. Population growth, higher incomes, urbanisation, public nutrition programmes and changing dietary preferences are expected to drive this increase.
Dairy to Remain India’s Leading Protein Source
Dairy and pulses are expected to remain the dominant protein sources in India. Milk is already the country’s largest source of animal protein, and its importance is expected to continue growing.
By 2070, per-capita consumption of milk protein could reach 13.1 kg annually, compared with 9.12 kg from pulses. The report also estimates that total milk-protein consumption could increase from less than 5 million tonnes in 2025 to 13.3 million tonnes by 2070, although the report notes that this figure should be treated as an estimate rather than an independently verified calculation.
India’s milk production has already expanded substantially, increasing from 146.3 million tonnes in 2014-15 to 239.3 million tonnes in 2023-24, a 63.6% increase. Current production is estimated at approximately 248 million tonnes annually.
Despite increasing processing capacity and supply-chain consolidation, smallholders remain central to the dairy industry. Around 72% of India’s milk is supplied by small producers, many of whom own only two or three animals.
Feed and Water Constraints Could Limit Growth
The report argues that simply increasing the number of animals will not be sufficient to meet future demand. India will need to produce more milk while reducing its use of feed, water and energy.
The country faces an estimated 35.6% green fodder deficit, 10.5% dry fodder deficit and 44% shortfall in concentrate feed ingredients. Climate change could further increase pressure on feed availability as declining wheat and maize yields affect livestock-feed supplies and costs.
Water is another major concern. Citing National Dairy Development Board data, the report says livestock accounts for around 30% of India’s agricultural water use, including water required to produce animal feed.
Animal diseases, inadequate husbandry, antibiotic use, antimicrobial resistance, product quality and traceability are additional challenges that could affect productivity and farmer incomes.
Emissions Could Rise Sharply Without Change
The study evaluates four possible pathways for India’s protein system through 2070: business as usual, production-side emissions mitigation, demand diversification and an integrated transition.
Under the business-as-usual pathway, annual emissions linked to protein production could reach 1.92 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2070, compared with a modelled climate-safe level of 0.25 gigatonnes.
Milk is expected to remain the largest contributor to protein-system emissions because of its continued importance in India’s diet.
A production-focused pathway involving improved animal productivity, better rations, methane reduction, manure management, veterinary care and stronger cold chains could reduce emissions. However, even under highly ambitious assumptions, annual emissions would remain around 0.73 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent in 2070.
Diversification Could Reduce Pressure
The report also examines greater use of alternative protein sources. Under its demand-diversification pathway, around 10% of protein demand is substituted by 2035 and 35% by 2070.
This could reduce annual emissions to 0.50 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent by 2070. Pulses are expected to play an important role, with protein consumption from pulses projected to increase from 3.5 million tonnes to 9.3 million tonnes.
However, India currently imports nearly 90% of its plant-protein isolates, highlighting the need for greater domestic extraction and processing capacity.
Integrated Transition Offers Strongest Outcome
The report’s fourth pathway combines livestock productivity improvements, greater consumption of traditional plant proteins, alternative protein development and measures to maintain healthier overall diets.
Under this integrated pathway, annual emissions could fall to 0.30 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent by 2070, while cumulative emissions above the climate-safe threshold could decline to 8.37 gigatonnes.
For the dairy industry, the findings point towards greater investment in productivity per animal, feed quality, drought-resilient fodder, animal health, methane reduction, manure management, traceability, cooling infrastructure and reduced food losses.
The report also stresses that the cost of modernisation cannot fall entirely on smallholder farmers. Processors, retailers, financial institutions and governments will need to support farmers through financing, training and risk-sharing mechanisms.
Overall, India’s protein transition presents a major growth opportunity for dairy, but the sector’s long-term sustainability will depend on producing more milk through higher productivity and greater resource efficiency rather than simply expanding herd numbers.