USDA Economic Research Service has released a recent report titled, The Growing Demand for Animal Products and Feed in India: Future Prospects for Production, Trade, and Technology Innovation (ERR-347). This study, authored by Jayson Beckman, Michael Johnson, Kayode Ajewole, James Kaufman, and Ethan Sabala, offers a robust forecast of India’s dairy and livestock sectors through 2050.
Drawing on our expertise in dairy market dynamics, we dissect key insights, add practical industry nuances, and propose actionable recommendations for industry leaders, policymakers, and global trade partners.
India’s Dairy Surge: Fueled by Population and Prosperity
India, home to 1.4 billion people in 2023, is projected to exceed 1.5 billion by 2050, with per capita incomes set to double. This twin engine of population growth and rising wealth is turbocharging dairy demand, cementing India’s position as the world’s largest dairy producer.
- Milk dominates animal protein intake (80% in 2019), a reflection of its cultural importance—from chai stalls to religious offerings.
- Non-milk animal product consumption rose from 6 kg per capita in 1960 to 17 kg in 2021, yet remains far below global averages.
- Urbanization (expected to surpass 50% by 2046) is reshaping food consumption—packaged paneer, creamy yogurt, and ghee are driving demand for industrial-scale dairy processing.
- Two USDA growth scenarios:
- SSP2 (moderate growth, 3.8% GDP per capita): Steady dairy expansion.
- SSP5 (rapid growth, 6.2% GDP per capita): A dairy boom that could strain traditional grazing models.
At Jordbrukare India, our field studies in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab reveal a gradual transition from traditional grazing to commercial dairy farming. Yet, smallholder farmers face feed bottlenecks, threatening scalability.
Feed: The Linchpin Under Pressure
India’s feed sector, the world’s fourth-largest (43.4 million metric tons annually), faces an 11.4% deficit—a growing bottleneck for dairy expansion.
Feed Consumption Breakdown (2022/23)
- Corn – 40.5%
- Wheat – 12.8%
- Soybean Meal – 12.2%
- Rapeseed & Cottonseed Meal – 17.3%
Our on-ground research in Uttar Pradesh reveals that buffalo herds still rely on crop residues (64% of feed), while commercial dairies demand protein-rich concentrates (soybean meal, corn). However, India’s soybean productivity is only 30% of the global average, necessitating higher imports.
Projected Feed Imports
- By 2030, India will become a net importer of feed.
- Corn imports could reach 122 million metric tons by 2050 under rapid income growth (SSP5).
- Soybean meal imports may surge from 2.1 million metric tons in 2020 to 49.4–52.9 million metric tons by 2050 (SSP5).
- 2021’s GE soybean meal import (despite the ban) signaled policy vulnerability.
Key Question for Dairy Producers: Should India cling to self-reliance or embrace global feed supply chains? Jordbrukare India anticipates a hybrid approach, blending imports with yield-boosting innovations.
Production Challenges: Dairy’s Buffalo Core
India’s animal product output is growing, yet productivity lags behind global benchmarks:
- Buffalo & beef: India is the third-largest exporter of beef (carabeef), yet cattle productivity is low (103 kg per animal vs. 371 kg in the U.S.).
- Poultry meat productivity: Increased 8.5% annually since 2000, yet still below global per-bird averages.
- Dairy Buffalo: Despite being the backbone of India’s milk economy, feed shortages, poor genetics, and post-lactation culling limit productivity.
Game-Changing Opportunity: GE Crops
- Genetically Engineered (GE) crops could double corn and soybean yields by 2050.
- Policy barriers (39.2% agricultural tariffs, GE restrictions) create uncertainty.
- 2021’s temporary GE soybean meal import lifted feed constraints but exposed systemic fragility.
Jordbrukare India has observed policy flexibility in crisis scenarios, suggesting a possible long-term shift toward GE adoption.
Cultural & Dietary Shifts: Dairy’s Edge Over Meat
India’s dietary landscape is deeply rooted in culture and religion:
- Vegetarianism: 20-39% of Indians follow a vegetarian diet, limiting beef and pork expansion.
- Fish Consumption: 8.89 kg per capita (2021), with 12.33 kg among fish-eaters, growing in Bengal and Kerala.
- Dairy’s Unique Position: Unlike meat, dairy is universally accepted across religious lines, giving it unmatched resilience.
While the USDA report highlights poultry and seafood growth, Jordbrukare India forecasts dairy will remain the dominant animal protein due to its versatility—liquid, powdered, or processed.
Strategic Recommendations for Dairy & Feed Industry
1. Boosting Domestic Feed Production
✅ Hybrid & high-yielding crop varieties for corn and soybeans.
✅ Precision farming & soil health initiatives to maximize productivity.
✅ Contract farming models for consistent feed ingredient supply.
2. Diversifying Feed Sourcing
✅ Alternative proteins (fermented feed, algae-based proteins, agricultural byproducts).
✅ Reducing import dependency by expanding trade partnerships beyond traditional sources.
3. Strengthening Supply Chain & Logistics
✅ Cold storage & automated feed mills for efficiency.
✅ AI-driven predictive analytics to prevent feed shortages.
4. Expanding Dairy Farmers’ Access to High-Quality Feed
✅ Dairy cooperatives’ bulk feed procurement models.
✅ Government-backed feed credit programs.
✅ Farmer training in scientific feeding practices.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for India’s Dairy & Feed Sector
India’s dairy industry must prioritize feed security to sustain growth and competitiveness. Given rising feed demand, productivity constraints, and policy barriers, strategic reforms are crucial.
At Jordbrukare India, we recommend a multi-pronged approach:
✅ Enhance domestic feed production with better-yielding crop varieties.
✅ Expand alternative feed sources to reduce reliance on traditional grains.
✅ Encourage policy shifts for GE crop adoption and streamlined trade.
✅ Leverage technology to optimize supply chains and cost structures.
India stands at a crossroads. With the right interventions, the dairy sector can navigate feed challenges, improve efficiency, and sustain its leadership in global dairy markets.