Rising Dairy Demand May Deepen Nutrition and Climate Challenges by 2030
The global demand for dairy products is set to surge faster than any other agricultural commodity over the next decade. While this growth reflects economic progress in developing countries, it is also poised to exacerbate global nutrition challenges and climate change risks, according to the latest estimates from the International Dairy Federation (IDF) and the IFCN Dairy Research Network.
Currently, the world produces close to one billion metric tonnes of milk annually—more than wheat or rice—but production is unevenly distributed. Over 90% of children under four years old live in developing countries, yet these regions produce only a small portion of the world’s milk. This imbalance is particularly worrying because one-third of young children in developing nations are stunted, a condition that better dairy nutrition could help address.
Expert Insight: “India and sub-Saharan Africa are at the heart of this dairy paradox,” said Prashant Tripathi, dairy policy expert at the Jordbrukare India. “They face the double burden of nutritional deficiencies and limited milk production capacity, which will worsen if climate resilience and productivity are not prioritized.”
The Supply Shortage Looms
Europe currently accounts for a quarter of global milk output, and perishable dairy products are challenging to trade internationally. Only 2% of raw milk equivalents are traded globally, making it difficult for local shortages to be offset.
The IDF projects a 30-million-tonne global milk deficit by 2030, while IFCN estimates a 10.5-million-tonne shortfall. This supply gap is expected to drive up milk prices, making dairy products less accessible to populations that need them most.
Climate Pressures Intensify the Crisis
Rising temperatures could reduce milk yields in tropical and subtropical regions by up to 10%, according to a Science Advances study. Dairy cattle emissions are another pressing issue, producing 2.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually—two-thirds of all car emissions worldwide.
Developing nations, where traditional and small-scale dairy farming is common, face higher emission intensities. Pollution per kilogram of milk in Africa and South Asia is three to four times higher than in developed countries.
India, the world’s largest milk producer, faces unique structural hurdles. Religious restrictions prevent the culling of unproductive cows, resulting in over 5 million stray cattle that strain resources and pose social challenges. Transitioning to more intensive buffalo dairying, which already accounts for half of India’s milk production, could help strike a balance between sustainability and cultural sensitivities.
The Path Forward: Efficiency and Sustainability
Wealthy nations are being urged to accelerate their shift towards plant-based alternatives to reduce global pressure on dairy supplies. Meanwhile, emerging economies like China, Brazil, and India must adopt precision dairy farming and mechanised production techniques to improve the dairy sector’s future. The dairy sector’s future lies in improving production efficiency, supporting eco-friendly dairy initiatives, and ensuring that children in developing nations have access to nutrient-rich milk products.