Another Price Increase Expected in 2026
Ukraine’s dairy market will face another rise in prices at the start of 2026. Analysts expect milk, butter and fermented dairy products to become 7–10% more expensive in January. Economist Volodymyr Chizh links this increase to higher production costs. Producers can no longer absorb these expenses without raising prices.
Rising Costs Drive the Market
Dairy prices have already increased sharply over the past year. Over the last twelve months, retail prices rose by 15–25%. This trend shows long-term pressure rather than a short-term shock. Feed, energy and labour costs continue to rise. Transport and packaging also add to producers’ expenses. These factors combine to push prices higher across the supply chain.
Retail Prices Vary Widely
Retail data shows large price differences between supermarket chains. As of 11 December 2025, the average price of milk with 2.6% fat reached 56.98 UAH. The lowest price for a 900 ml package stood at 33.99 UAH. Retailers set prices based on sourcing strategies, private labels and promotions. These differences do not reflect major changes in production costs.
Impact on Consumers
Higher dairy prices place extra pressure on household budgets. Dairy products remain essential for most Ukrainian families. Repeated price rises may reduce consumption, especially among low-income households. Consumers may switch to cheaper brands or reduce purchases altogether.
Challenges for Producers
For producers, higher prices offer limited relief. They help cover rising costs but do not solve deeper problems. Many farms still struggle with efficiency and energy use. Without investment and policy support, cost pressure will remain strong.
Market Outlook
The expected price rise in early 2026 forms part of a wider market adjustment. Producers seek to protect margins, while consumers face reduced purchasing power. The balance between affordability and sustainability remains fragile. Without structural improvements, dairy prices in Ukraine are likely to continue rising beyond 2026.