Raw milk purchase prices in Ukraine continued to increase in September, supported by stronger export demand and firmer prices for dairy commodities on global markets. However, domestic demand remains weak and several supply-chain and security challenges could limit the pace of the recovery through the end of 2026.
According to the Association of Milk Producers, the weighted average raw milk purchase price reached UAH 15.10 per kg excluding VAT as of September 9, increasing by UAH 0.75 from the previous month. Despite the monthly improvement, the price remained UAH 1.52 below the level recorded in September 2025.
Milk Prices Increase Across Grades
Prices increased across all three major milk quality categories during the month.
| Milk Grade | September Price | Monthly Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Extra grade | UAH 15.30/kg | UAH 0.70 |
| Grade A | UAH 15.00/kg | UAH 0.80 |
| First grade | UAH 14.50/kg | UAH 1.00 |
| Weighted average | UAH 15.10/kg | UAH 0.75 |
The Association of Milk Producers said raw milk prices increased despite worsening security conditions and weak domestic demand. Export demand for dairy commodities and higher international prices, particularly for skimmed milk powder, are providing important support to the Ukrainian market.
Stocks of butter and milk powder remain relatively limited. Earlier in the year, aggressive discounts on packaged butter encouraged consumption and prevented significant inventories from accumulating.
Further Price Gains Expected
The Ukrainian milk market could see additional increases during the remainder of 2026. Prices for large volumes of extra-grade milk are expected to reach UAH 15.50–16.00 per kg by the end of September.
By the end of the year, the projected price range could rise further to UAH 17.00–17.50 per kg. However, the outlook will depend on several variables, including the security situation, dairy demand, finished-product prices, export and import volumes, and exchange-rate movements.
Global supply trends could also provide additional support. Rabobank forecasts that milk production in the European Union could decline by 1.6% year on year in the fourth quarter, potentially contributing to tighter global dairy supplies and stronger commodity prices.
The combined global raw milk price indicator stood at approximately $46.8 per 100 kg in August 2026, with the possibility of increasing to around $47.5. In Ukraine, raw milk recalculated to 4% fat and 3.3% protein rose from approximately $38 per 100 kg at the end of August to $39 at the beginning of September.
Imports and Domestic Demand Remain Risks
Despite favorable international conditions, several domestic factors could restrict further price growth.
The balance between milk availability and processor demand will remain important. Weak domestic consumption could limit processors’ ability to increase raw milk purchases, while rising logistics expenses may place additional pressure on margins.
Imports of finished dairy products are another concern. Increased competition from imported cheese, particularly products originating from Poland, could affect domestic processing economics and limit the room available for higher raw milk prices.
A shift in raw milk toward commodity products such as milk powder and butter could also influence the supply of fresh dairy products. If processed-product inventories begin accumulating in warehouses, processors could become more cautious about raising purchase prices.
Outlook for Ukrainian Dairy Farmers
The combination of stronger global dairy commodity prices, limited inventories and potentially lower international milk production provides a favorable backdrop for Ukrainian dairy farmers. Higher export demand could continue supporting raw milk prices if global markets remain firm.
However, domestic demand, security risks, logistics costs and import competition remain significant uncertainties. Farmers and processors will therefore need to balance the benefits of stronger commodity markets with persistent operational challenges.
For now, the September price recovery offers Ukrainian dairy producers some financial relief. If international dairy markets continue strengthening while domestic supply remains constrained, raw milk prices could move closer to the projected UAH 17.00–17.50 per kg range by year-end.