Ukraine’s dairy market is seeing a modest rise in prices for milk, kefir, and yoghurt, but experts describe it as temporary. According to Olena Zhupinas, Deputy General Director of the Association of Milk Producers, this increase is linked mainly to energy costs and blackout-related expenses, not to sustained inflation.
Falling global dairy prices, especially for butter, down from €7 to €5 per kilogram in the EU, have made exports less profitable. Ukrainian producers are therefore redirecting products to the domestic market, where competition keeps prices in check.
Zhupinas emphasises that cheaper raw milk continues to restrain inflation: “With lower raw material costs, we do not expect further price growth.” The only upward pressure comes from rising electricity costs, as processors and retailers switch to generators during blackouts. This raises short-term costs for pasteurisation, refrigeration, and logistics, slightly affecting shelf prices.
Conversely, butter prices may fall due to surplus supply redirected from exports.
Overall, analysts forecast short-term fluctuations but no lasting inflation. Prices are likely to stabilise or decline once energy supplies normalise, keeping Ukraine’s dairy market competitive and balanced through year-end.
