India’s dairy sector is facing increasing pressure as milk demand continues to rise while production growth slows amid heat stress, fodder shortages, low animal productivity and climate-related risks. A recent working paper by the CII Food and Agri Centre of Excellence and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) has highlighted the need for urgent measures to build a more climate-resilient dairy production system.
According to the report, India’s annual milk production growth has declined from around 6–7% previously to approximately 3.5–3.7%. At the same time, consumer demand continues to increase, creating concerns over a widening gap between milk supply and demand.
The impact is being felt throughout the dairy value chain, from farmers and livestock owners to milk processors and dairy companies.
Heat Stress Threatens Milk Production
Rising temperatures are emerging as one of the most significant risks to India’s milk production. The working paper estimates that a 1°C increase in temperature can result in a loss of approximately 1.5 to 2 litres of milk per animal per day.
Heat stress can affect both animal health and productivity. For dairy companies, fluctuations in milk availability can increase procurement costs and put pressure on margins. Changes in milk composition can also affect the production of value-added products such as cheese, paneer and curd.
The report therefore emphasizes the importance of climate adaptation measures across the dairy supply chain rather than treating climate risks solely as a farm-level issue.
Data Gaps Limit Targeted Intervention
Another major challenge identified in the report is the limited availability of structured animal and milk-production data.
According to EDF chief advisor-India Hisham Mundol, less than 1% of India’s milk-producing animals are covered by structured milk recording. Better data collection could help farmers, processors, lenders and policymakers assess productivity, manage risks and design targeted interventions.
Animal-level productivity records could also support emissions measurement. The report argues that emissions monitoring should be integrated into the broader data infrastructure of the dairy sector rather than developed as a separate system.
A national dairy data platform has consequently been identified as one of the measures that could improve decision-making and strengthen the sector’s resilience.
Fodder Security and Methane Emissions
Feed availability and quality are also critical to dairy productivity. The working paper calls for a national fodder security strategy to address shortages and improve the nutritional balance of livestock diets.
Agricultural policy expert Ashok Gulati has also highlighted methane emissions from livestock as an important environmental challenge. Much of the sector’s livestock emissions are associated with methane produced during the digestion of feed.
Gulati pointed to research investigating the use of seaweed in livestock diets, which has indicated potential methane reductions of around 30–40% under certain feeding conditions.
Improving feed quality could therefore have a dual benefit by supporting animal productivity while potentially reducing emissions intensity.
Low Cattle Productivity Remains a Concern
Animal productivity is another major constraint for India’s dairy industry. The report cites average productivity of Indian cattle at approximately 7–8 litres of milk per animal per day.
Gulati argued that the decline of some pure indigenous breeds has contributed to productivity challenges and called for renewed attention to genetic resources and breeding programmes.
He also highlighted the climate-resilience characteristics of indigenous breeds. According to the cited discussion, indigenous pure breeds can tolerate heat and humidity better than some crossbred animals, which can experience substantially greater milk losses during periods of high temperature.
Improving breeding strategies while retaining traits that support heat tolerance could therefore become increasingly important as climate conditions become more challenging.
Proposed Measures for a Climate-Resilient Dairy Sector
The working paper recommends several initiatives aimed at strengthening India’s dairy ecosystem.
| Proposed Measure | Potential Focus |
|---|---|
| National dairy data platform | Animal productivity and supply-chain data |
| National fodder security strategy | Reliable and balanced livestock feed |
| Indigenous dairy certification | Recognition and standardization of indigenous dairy systems |
| Climate-resilient skilling institutes | Training farmers and dairy workers |
| Sector-wide emissions reporting | Measurement and management of dairy emissions |
| Export-ready quality standards | Improving quality and international competitiveness |
| Improved breeding programmes | Productivity and climate resilience |
The report argues that these measures need to operate across the entire dairy ecosystem. Farmers require better access to feed, genetics, data and skills, while processors need reliable milk supplies and consistent composition for value-added production.
Building a More Resilient Dairy Future
India remains one of the world’s major milk-producing countries, but slowing production growth alongside rising demand presents an increasingly important challenge for the sector.
Climate change adds another layer of complexity because higher temperatures can directly affect animal productivity, while fodder availability, animal genetics and feed quality influence both milk output and emissions.
The working paper’s central message is that increasing India’s milk supply will require more than simply producing additional animals. Improvements in productivity, climate resilience, livestock nutrition, breeding, data collection and emissions management will all be important.
As demand for milk and value-added dairy products continues to grow, strengthening the resilience of India’s dairy production system could become increasingly important for farmers, processors and consumers alike.
