June 2026 – The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) platform opened the new New Zealand dairy season on a mixed note, with prices for some key commodities falling while others posted modest gains. The overall GDT Price Index declined 1.6%, mainly driven by weaker prices for milk powders.
According to GDT figures:
- Whole Milk Powder (WMP) dropped 3.7%
- Skim Milk Powder (SMP) fell 1.1%
- Buttermilk Powder saw the steepest decline at -6.1%
- Cheddar Cheese was down 4.2%
However, not all categories showed weakness.
- Mozzarella gained 2.3%
- Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) increased 1.4%
- Butter prices remained steady at an elevated US$7800/tonne, due to tight global stocks
Rosalind Crickett, dairy analyst at NZX, attributed the firm's butter prices to ongoing supply constraints. “Global butter inventories are tight, which is keeping prices exceptionally high,” she said.
Meanwhile, the European Union dairy sector is facing additional supply-side pressure. As EU producers enter their seasonal peak, milk production is down year-on-year:
- Belgium: -3.9%
- Germany: -2.3%
- Spain: -2.0%
Crickett highlighted drier-than-normal weather in northwestern Europe and the UK, as well as the spread of bluetongue virus, as key factors suppressing milk output. “These challenges are expected to maintain upward pressure on EU dairy prices,” she noted.
Adding to the global uncertainty, the industry is watching closely as the 90-day pause on new US tariffs winds down. “There are still two GDT auctions left beforTrump's's tariff policy kicks in for non-Chinese imports, giving traders a narrow window to finalise shipment,” Crickett said.
With volatility ahead, industry stakeholders are advised to monitor GDT events and regional supply conditions closely.
