Climate Change Drove Over One-Third of Soybean Crop Failures in 2012, Study Finds

A new study published in Communications Earth & Environment has found that climate change was responsible for more than 35% of the soybean crop failures that occurred simultaneously in Argentina, Brazil, and the United States in 2012. The findings raise fresh concerns over the vulnerability of global food systems to climate-related disruptions.

Study Links Extreme Weather to Soybean Yield Declines

Using advanced climate and crop modeling techniques, researchers simulated what 2012’s soybean yields might have looked like in a world without human-induced global warming. The results were stark: more than a third of the total yield loss was directly linked to climate change, primarily due to elevated temperatures and reduced soil moisture.

Lead author Dr. Raed Hamed, a climate scientist at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, explained that the 2012 event offered a rare opportunity to study the impact of simultaneous extreme weather across major crop-producing regions. “The 2012 crop failure was an unusually widespread event, making it an ideal case to analyze how climate change influences global food production,” he said.

Soybeans: A Pillar of the Global Food System

Soybeans are one of the world’s four major staple crops—alongside maize, wheat, and rice—supplying nearly 65% of global caloric intake and occupying 45% of agricultural land. According to Carbon Brief, global soybean production reached 365 million tonnes in 2021, with the vast majority processed into animal feed, vegetable oil, and biofuels rather than consumed directly by humans.

Three countries—Brazil, the United States, and Argentina—account for roughly 75% of global soybean production. This concentration makes the global market particularly susceptible to simultaneous weather-related shocks in these regions.

2012: A Climate Shock to the System

The 2012 crop failure was triggered by a combination of extreme heat and drought conditions across key soybean-growing areas in the Americas. These weather patterns coincided with the tail end of a prolonged La Niña event, which, although typically associated with cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures, often brings hotter, drier conditions to the US and southeastern South America.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) noted that the 2012 La Niña was the third-warmest on record—further intensifying already harsh conditions for soybean crops.

Regional Variability: Winners and Losers

The impact of climate change on soybean yields in 2012 varied sharply by region:

• United States: A 3.5% decrease in soybean production due to climate change.
• Southeastern South America (including Argentina): A massive 222% decrease.
• Central Brazil: A surprising 14% increase in yield, possibly due to local climatic advantages.

These disparities underline the complex relationship between climate and agriculture—where some regions may temporarily benefit even as others suffer steep losses.

Lessons for the Future: Building Climate Resilience in Agriculture

The study highlights how concentrated production of a global staple crop, when combined with climate-induced shocks, can have widespread ripple effects—disrupting supply chains, driving price spikes, and threatening food security worldwide.

With climate models predicting more frequent and intense extreme weather events in the coming decades, the researchers stress the urgent need for resilient agricultural systems. Adaptive strategies such as crop diversification, climate-smart farming practices, and international cooperation are essential to protect food supplies in a warming world.

Reference
Hamed, R., et al. (2024). The 2012 simultaneous soybean crop failures in the US, Brazil and Argentina were partly attributable to climate change. Communications Earth & Environment. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01317-7