Auckland | New Delhi – As the 2024–25 dairy season concludes in New Zealand, global market watchers, including India’s dairy industry, are closely analyzing the implications of persistently high international milk prices. The final Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction of the season ended with a modest 0.9% decline in the price index, yet key products like whole milk powder (WMP) and skim milk powder (SMP) continue to trade at elevated levels.
- 🥛 WMP fell slightly to US$4,332/tonne
- 🥛 SMP edged down to US$2,817/tonne
Despite these minor corrections, industry giant Fonterra has held its forecast for a record farmgate payout of NZ$10/kg milksolids, citing:
- 📈 A 2.1% year-on-year increase in milk production
- 💱 Favorable currency exchange conditions
- 🌎 Strong global demand for New Zealand dairy exports
📈 2025–26 Outlook: Can Prices Stay High?
Market sentiment remains bullish.
-
ANZ has upgraded its milk price forecast to NZ$10/kg MS
-
NZX Dairy analyst Rosalind Crickett projects a conservative but firm range of NZ$8.75–10.25/kg MS
Fonterra is expected to release its official opening forecast for the 2025–26 season on May 29, with early indicators suggesting stability or further upside—particularly if Chinese import demand rebounds.
“The global market seems well-supported, especially with U.S. Class III prices rising on cheese and whey strength, and EU supplies remaining tight,” said a senior export trader from Auckland.
🇮🇳 Strategic Takeaways for the Indian Dairy Sector
India does not directly trade in GDT markets, but global price dynamics can shape local realities in three critical areas:
1️⃣ Import Cost Pressure
High global SMP and WMP prices could impact Indian importers, especially private players who rely on imports to fill seasonal shortfalls.
2️⃣ Export Competitiveness
New Zealand’s high farmgate rates offer a price advantage to Indian dairy exporters—particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, where buyers may seek lower-cost alternatives.
3️⃣ Domestic Pricing Trends
If high global prices persist, India could see upward pressure on domestic milk procurement prices, especially in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Punjab where large private processors compete for raw milk.
🧭 What Should Indian Cooperatives & Private Dairies Do Now?
- 🔍 Monitor GDT auction trends and global weather patterns (especially El Niño/La Niña)
- 💼 Reassess pricing models for value-added dairy products like SMP, butter, cheese
- 🚢 Strategize export plans in light of expected global shortages or trade shifts
- 🌾 Focus on feed-cost optimization to stay competitive despite inflationary headwinds
