Great Britain’s milk output continued to decline in July as prolonged hot and dry weather put significant pressure on dairy production. Daily milk deliveries fell an estimated 3.2% year-on-year, while the latest week recorded a sharper 4.5% decline.
Milk Deliveries Fall Further in July
Average daily milk deliveries reached 33.28 million litres in July, taking total monthly production to approximately 1.03 billion litres. This was around 34 million litres lower than July 2025.
For the April–July milk year, cumulative milk supplies were approximately 2% below the previous year’s level. The decline became more pronounced toward the end of the period, with deliveries in the week ending August 1 falling 4.5% year-on-year.
Record Heat and Drought Affect Dairy Production
The prolonged hot weather has emerged as one of the major factors behind the decline in milk production.
England and Wales experienced their driest and sunniest July on record, creating difficult conditions for dairy farmers. Heat stress can reduce feed intake and productivity in dairy cows, ultimately affecting milk yields.
Dry conditions have also severely restricted grass and forage growth. With grazing availability becoming increasingly limited, many farmers have started using silage earlier than normal.
This has increased reliance on stored feed and added to production costs at a time when farm margins are already under pressure.
Milk Prices Rise but Farm Margins Remain Tight
Milk contract prices increased for August, with further positive price announcements for September.
However, the improvement in milk prices may not be enough to offset production costs for many farms. Higher feed requirements, reduced forage availability and other input costs continue to weigh on profitability.
The situation highlights the growing challenge for dairy farmers of maintaining production while managing increasingly volatile weather and input costs.
Bluetongue Adds to Industry Concerns
Animal health is another factor being closely monitored by the British dairy industry.
Bluetongue remains a concern for the national herd, with recent cases concentrated in Devon. Any wider spread of the disease could put additional pressure on livestock productivity and further affect milk yields.
Key Factors Behind the Decline
Several factors are contributing to weaker British milk production:
- Extreme heat: Heat stress is affecting cow productivity.
- Drought: Low rainfall has reduced grass and forage growth.
- Poor grazing conditions: Farmers are turning to silage earlier than usual.
- Higher feed requirements: Additional feed is increasing production costs.
- Bluetongue: Disease risks remain a concern for livestock producers.
- Tight margins: Milk prices remain challenging compared with production costs.
Impact on the Dairy Supply Chain
Lower milk production could have wider implications for Britain’s dairy supply chain.
Reduced farm-level supplies can affect the availability of raw milk for processors and potentially influence markets for liquid milk, cheese, butter and other dairy products.
If dry conditions continue, farmers could face further pressure on forage availability, making feed management and cost control increasingly important in the months ahead.
Outlook for British Milk Production
The near-term outlook remains challenging. Higher milk prices could provide some support to farmers, but production is likely to remain highly dependent on weather conditions, forage availability and animal health.
The key factors to monitor will be rainfall and grass growth, feed costs, milk prices, cow health and the spread of bluetongue.
The latest figures demonstrate how strongly weather conditions can influence dairy production. Prolonged heat and drought can affect not only individual farms but also the wider milk supply chain and market balance.
Key Takeaways
- 🇬🇧 Great Britain’s milk deliveries fell 3.2% year-on-year in July.
- 🥛 Average daily production stood at 33.28 million litres.
- 📉 July production was approximately 34 million litres below July 2025.
- 📊 April–July cumulative supplies were 2% lower than last year.
- ☀️ England and Wales experienced exceptionally hot and dry conditions.
- 🌱 Poor grass growth has reduced grazing availability.
- 🌾 Farmers are using silage earlier, increasing feed costs.
- 🦠 Bluetongue remains an additional livestock health concern.
- 💷 Higher milk prices may still not cover production costs for many farms.
